Weekend Preview (10.30.09)

As far as predicting goes, it’s pretty easy when one movie comes out in full release the entire weekend because everyone fears competing with it. The theme of today’s post is “Don’t **** with Michael Jackson.”

You already read about my thoughts on the film about Michael Jackson’s concert preparations called This Is It. One thing I was sure to mention, was that it wasn’t going to stop millions of people from going and if you think it would still be this way if he hadn’t died, you’re out of your mind. This would air as a television special on PBS if Jackson were still alive.

Luckily, this saves me from creating another movie poster picture for this week. Instead, I give you this:

My Endorsement: Obviously I can’t endorse This Is It, but if you’re cool with it, reviews have been positive, so I’m sure it wouldn’t be a waste of your money depending on how you define waste. The only other new film being released in any nation-wide capacity is the limited release of The Boondock Saints II: All Saints Day. I’m not sure if it looks all that great and it can’t be better than the original by virtue of the fact that Willam Defoe isn’t in it, but it should be entertaining to say the least. I’m sure Troy Duffy has plenty new creative action sequences whipped up.

Red Flag: I can’t really issue my warning notice to This Is It either, so I’m going to jump back to last week and tell you not to see Saw VI if you’re looking for a scary movie to go along with Halloween weekend. The film only made $14 million last weekend, which means that “Saw” fans have to be disinterested and if they’re disinterested, then you should stay the heck away.

Box Office Prediction: Well, this is a great weekend to rebound from my first loss of my rookie predicting season. This Is It will be record-breaking in many regards this weekend I’m sure. We’re not talking all-time box office necessarily, but it could break overseas opening weekend records and will surely be the highest-grossing film ever released in October.

After that, I would just say slide last week’s films down, but it’s not that cut and dry. For Paranormal Activity and Saw VI, however, it sure is. With Halloween weekend among us, you can’t doubt the power of a horror movie, so I’m keeping them at No. 2 and No. 3 despite “Saw” finishing close to Where the Wild Things Are.

“Wild Things” should finish at No. 4 easily, but at No. 5 I’m going to make a daring prediction. Looking at the way Law Abiding Citizen dropped off last week as compared to Couples Retreat, I think “Retreat” is going to eek it out to stay at No. 5. There’s a little risk to that, but it’s the only film appealing to the date crowd still and I think “Citizen’s” audience is running out.

In summary:

  1. This Is It
  2. Paranormal Activity
  3. Saw VI
  4. Where the Wild Things Are
  5. Couples Retreat


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